Results are very heterogenous across countries. Zafir, A. Quah, D. (1996). Export Diversification in Latin America and the Caribbean. Suvannaphakdy, S., & Toyoda, T. (2014). Papers Growth by Destination (Where You Export Matters): Trade with China and Growth in African Countries. Lee, J.-W., & Gray, K. (2016). Taylor, T. G. (2003). Based on the estimated effect of infrastructure investment on total factor productivity (TFP) enhancing and trade costs reducing, this paper uses the data from Asian Development Bank to numerically assess the effects of Asian nations' infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative within the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, and the results show that most … These effects are equivalent to the impact of a coordinated tariff reduction of one-third for all countries along BRI corridors.

A Historical Pattern of Economic Growth in Developing Countries. As an example, Mongolia, which annualised payment was estimated to more than 5% of its GDP in the baseline, would benefit from a lump sum transfer of close to 3% of its GDP under the counterfactual allocation. Twin peaks: Groth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics. By creating complex interdependence in production costs, input-output linkages across countries not only magnify the gains, but also affect the distribution of those gains across countries. The overland Belt links China to Central and South Asia and onward to Europe.

In comparison, Beijing and Chongqing have much higher delivery costs, mainly because they do not have good access to marine transport and/or efficient domestic distribution networks. Rising BRIC and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns. If each country individually decided how to invest in infrastructure, there spillovers would not be taken into account. Reference Manager From Old Comrades to New Partnerships: Dynamic Development Of Economic Relations Between China and North Korea. Trade between the countries involved accounts for more than a quarter of world trade, so better connections and the lower trade costs that come with them could have a significant global impact. This service is more advanced with JavaScript availableThe effects of the BRI on the domestic economies of the participating countries are analysed, including the implications of intensified trade between China and East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia and Latin America. Gravity Model by Panel Data Approach: An Empirical Application with Implications for the ASEAN Free Trade Area.

The Economic Impacts of China and India on a Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Prospects. Maritime Policy & Management: Vol. But they are unevenly distributed across countries, with some economies potentially losing from the infrastructure investment.

This is even more true when transport infrastructure crosses one or more borders, pointing to the value of international cooperation in this area. Roland-Holst, D., & Weiss, J. These results highlight the strong spillover effects of infrastructure investment where the size of the investment is not a good predictor of gains.This highlights the heterogeneity of gains, but also the mis-alignment of gains and costs across countries. Chinese Infrastructure Investment in Latin America—An Assessment of Strategies, Actors and Risks. What is China’s One Belt One Road initiative and will it bring prosperity or difficulties to the many developing countries along its route?