His second start of 2020 was reminiscent of 2018, when Nola emerged as one of the National League’s premier pitchers.

It would be easy to accuse the alleged juiced balls of being responsible for the decrease in Nola’s effectiveness, but home runs are not used in the calculation of BABIP. More swings on the knuckle curve and fewer swings on the two seam fastball stand out the most here. Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author.

Today In his last two starts, Aaron Nola has shown why he is the ace of the Philadelphia Phillies and why he may have been undervalued coming into this season. A negative number would mean that his 2018 stats were greater than either the real or expected 2019 stats.

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The Phillies built a lineup that scored 11 runs in seven innings and topped a rotation with Nola and Zack Wheeler, who pitched six strong innings in Wednesday’s first game to win his second straight start. 3 Year Projections

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The Phillies had to use their closer for the final out of the game after they started the inning ahead, 11-3.

WPA Tools Girardi lifted Nola after 88 pitches as the Phillies did not want to push the starter too deep in his second start of the season and after a 12-day layoff. Positional Depth Charts Current Depth Charts Get Phillies analysis in your inbox as the MLB season gets underway. More According to the model, Nola should have had a smaller decrease in swing percentage on the four seam fastball, a significant decrease in swing percentage on the two seam fastball, a slightly smaller decrease in swing percentage on the changeup, and a larger increase in swing percentage on the knuckle curve.

The 3.3% increase in CSW% on the four seam fastball is good, but the 6.8% decrease in CSW% on the knuckle curve is concerning. and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions. WPA Tools But I don’t think our guys are quite at full strength. The Phillies record now sits at 5-6 and they will look to build off this Braves series moving forward.

2020 600 PA / 200 IP Projections The changeup and knuckle curve gave more interesting results. Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. My lengthiest Nola thoughts came just after his 2015 All of which is to say that while I don’t think Nola or his changeup are different, his coaching environment and approach to pitching are, and I think he has actually leveled up as a result. Team Batting Stats Rookie Leaders He is tasked with carrying a pitching staff that currently sports baseball’s second-worst team ERA and by far its worst bullpen ERA (Internal reinforcement candidates include freshly promoted 25-year-old reliever We hoped you liked reading Aaron Nola Has Changed, but Also Hasn’t by Eric Longenhagen!Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. Win Probability & Box Scores He just wanted to feel good again.

DFS Projections Pitching:

In his last two starts, Aaron Nola has shown why he is the ace of the Philadelphia Phillies and why he may have been undervalued coming into this season. But he was as good as I’ve seen him.

Zack Wheeler allowed three runs in six innings to lead the Phillies past the Yankees in the first game of a doubleheader. He left with an eight-run lead but watched the bullpen make a blowout interesting. as distributed by STATS. Get Phillies analysis in your inbox as the MLB season gets underway. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider. So far this season, Aaron Nola owns a league-leading 15.1 K’s/9, most recently holding the New York Yankees to one run over six innings with 12 strikeouts. Philadelphia Phillies activated RHP Aaron Nola from the 10-day injured list.

One observation is that the model was very accurate for fastballs. Team Pitching Stats 8. However, the model predicts a 12% decrease. He made his major league debut in 2015 and has been a key part of the rotation since. The Phillies could have used Neris in the seventh inning of the second game if they did not have to burn him to protect a blowout. And that’s how it looked in the first game Wednesday. Incoming Graduate Student - Business Analytics M.S.

“Those were the ones that you try to go out there and get an easy complete game.

But I believe we’re going to get better. Defensive Stats He allowed back-to-back singles and an RBI double, then hit a batter and gave up an RBI single before being lifted. WhatsApp. The increase in BABIP seen in the tables above seems to indicate that Nola had worse luck in 2019.

With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage. There was much attention made to Wheeler’s power arm and strikeout rate when the Phillies added him last December, but he’s shown the makings in his first two starts of being a complete pitcher. Aaron Nola was excellent Wednesday night, tying his career-high with 12 strikeouts, and weaving his way through the Yankees’ lineup with a powered-up fastball and always signature curveball.

Guts!